Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District will host a special election on March 13, 2018 after its previous incumbent, Republican Tim Murphy, resigned due to a sex scandal. The candidates in this special election are Republican Rick Saccone, a state representative, and Democrat Conor Lamb, a former Assistant U.S. Attorney. A Libertarian candidate is also in the … More Analysis of PA-18: Does Conor Lamb have a path to victory in the special election?
New Hampshire used to be a heavily Republican state. For over a century, Republicans were clearly the majority party in New Hampshire, and Democratic wins, though they happened occasionally, were clearly the exception to the rule. During that time, New Hampshire produced such notable Republicans as Styles Bridges, Norris Cotton, Warren Rudman, and the (still … More How Has New Hampshire’s Political Geography Shifted Since 2000?
New Jersey has a reputation (Chris Christie aside) for being a solidly Democratic state, and thus it was widely expected to vote for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Many people even expected Hillary to improve on Obama’s 2008 and 2012 performances, due to New Jersey’s large concentration of college-educated white voters, a demographic … More What on Earth Happened in 2016, Part 5 – New Jersey Presidential Election and Demographic Analysis
Massachusetts is well known as one of the most Democratic states in the country. There was no doubt that it would vote for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election – the only question was by what margin. The Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in Massachusetts had not changed a lot in the previous three … More What on Earth Happened in 2016, Part 4 – Massachusetts Presidential Election and Marijuana Referendum
Maine was a bit off the radar in the run-up to the 2016 elections – despite it being one of only two states that split their electoral votes by congressional district, and despite polls showing that the previously Democratic 2nd District could go to Trump, it was mostly ignored by political analysts in favor of … More What on Earth Happened in 2016, Part 3 – Maine Presidential Election and Ballot Referendums
Connecticut lived up to its reputation as a blue state in the 2016 elections. It gave Hillary Clinton a solid 14-point margin of victory, a small drop from Obama’s 17-point margin in 2012 but still a solid victory. However, the winning coalition that Clinton put together in Connecticut was markedly different from Obama’s 2012 coalition. … More What on Earth Happened in 2016, Part 2 – Connecticut statewide elections
New Hampshire is known for its close elections, and in that respect, the 2016 elections certainly did not disappoint. Though Barack Obama won New Hampshire by a solid 6 percent margin in 2012, Hillary Clinton won New Hampshire by a margin of only 0.3 percent. Thus, New Hampshire was the closest state in the 2016 … More What on Earth Happened in 2016, Part 1 – New Hampshire statewide elections
On September 13, 2016, voters in New Hampshire went to the polls to select the Democratic and Republican Party’s gubernatorial nominees. While Democrats have held the Governorship of New Hampshire for all but two of the past twenty years, the 2016 race was widely considered to be a toss-up even before the nominees had been … More Maps and Analysis of the 2016 Democratic and Republican gubernatorial primaries in New Hampshire, and Implications for the General Election
On June 7, 2016, the final group of states held their presidential primaries for the 2016 election cycle. While the media coverage of the primaries that day focused almost entirely on California, perhaps the more revealing primary, in terms of using the results to draw conclusions about the political demographics of the state and how … More Analysis and Maps of the 2016 New Jersey Democratic Presidential Primary
Pardon the lateness; I’ve had a very busy past few months. -Gregory Unlike in 2008, when Connecticut held its Democratic presidential primary relatively early (on February 5), in 2016 Connecticut’s Democratic primary was held in the second half of primary season, on April 26, alongside primaries in four other states: Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and … More Maps and Analysis of the 2016 Connecticut Democratic Presidential Primary